IVR Polls (6/2, likely voters):
Larry Joe Doherty (D): 46
Michael McCaul (R-inc): 52
(MoE: ±4.3%)
While this district does have a PVI or R+13, it’s been trending in the right direction: Al Gore won 34% of its vote in 2000, while John Kerry won 38% four years later. The real eye-opener came in 2006, when McCaul’s performance sagged dramatically against an underfunded challenger:
Mike McCaul (R): 55
Ted Ankrum (D): 41
Michael Badnarik (L): 4
This time, McCaul is up against a fairly well-funded challenger, lawyer and local TV celebrity Larry Joe Doherty.
We’ve had our eye on this race for a while, but this is the first poll we’ve seen that actually suggests McCaul could be in trouble. In fact, it’s the first poll of any kind that we’ve seen of this race. The same survey shows Sen. Cornyn leading Rick Noriega by 54-44, and McCain leading Obama by 55-41 in the district.
In the diaries, the pollster has more:
Historically, turnout in this district doesn’t include large numbers of Latinos or African-Americans. In this poll, both groups went with Doherty, Latinos by 2-1 and African-Americans by 7-1. If Obama at the top of the ticket increases African-American general election turnout as he has in the primary, and these additional voters follow through on the down-ballot races, Doherty could close the gap even further. Increased Latino turnout in the primary was mainly a reflection of Clinton’s popularity, but there is a possibility that Noriega could also increase Latino turnout for the general, further benefiting Doherty.
Interesting (and exciting) stuff.
Now poll TX-7!
All we need is the Texas State house. 5 small little seats, that’s it. Also if someone could poll the Wendy Davis State Senate race and the Jow Jaworski sate senate race we’d be set. There’s also going to be a special election for another state senate race with to be determined candidates which may include Former Congressman Chris Bell. IF we can get those 3 in the state senate and take a majority in the house, Texas Dems will be back and actually be recognized as a real political force from here on out.
I like the numbers given for Rick Noriega. As the pollster says, this district does not have many blacks or Hispanics. If Noriega is getting 44% in suburban Houston and Austin and some rural counties in between, we can figure he’s going to get 74% or 84% or 94% in the South Texas and inner-city districts, so Noriega’s statewide figure will come in well above 44%.
landslide much? seriously, this very well could become a landslide tidal wave 1994 f-you to the Republicans.
Woody, you don’t know this district. Cornyn only won CD10 by 56-44 against Ron Kirk in 2002, and Kirk ended up spending $15 million. How much do you think Noriega will spend?
As it happened, Cornyn beat Kirk statewide by 12 — the same margin as he had in CD10. So Woody, can you tell me again why you think a 10-point deficit is good for Noriega?
I know TX-07 is going to be a hugely uphill fight, but I am incredibly impressed with Michael Skelly. I am not an idealist when it comes to politicians, but from what I have seen and read about this guy, he is exactly the type of person we need in Congress: someone who has built something in life instead of being a useless attack dog politician like John Culberson and a host of others.
I think IVR had him down about 19 points in their last poll and this race will be tough, but I am hoping Skelly can break out and get some national exposure this cycle. I have definitely been keeping my eye out for TX-07 scuttlebutt, and anyone from around there should keep us posted!